Brian Jeffriess

Keynote, 20/1/16 @ 1100 hrs

The economic future of wild bluefin ranching depends on having sustainable wild stocks. Ranching requires major capital investment. This capital risk leads to ranching requiring a more precautionary approach to management of bluefin stocks. For example, Australian industry strongly supports the CCSBT harvest control rules. Science has been the basis of the large current increases in catch quotas for Atlantic and Southern bluefins. Possibly, the hard decisions are still to be made on the Pacific bluefin stock. Bluefin ranching innovation is a relocation of tuna from a low productivity wild environment with relatively high mortality and Feed Conversion Ratio (FCR) to a generally much higher productivity farm environment with lower mortality and FCR. It is generally a much more effective utilisation of a natural resource. However, innovation eventually results in price pressure – and global ranched bluefin prices are at their lowest ever level. Is this just the cyclical trough or a structural change? Even if the market price recovers, the global bluefin ranching industry has fundamental economic challenges other than wild stocks. First, is the over-dependence on Japan and the Yen. Second, the world feed prices will average much higher. Third, is that the high profitability up to recent years has been capitalised into high expectations and over-investment in some parts of the supply chain. Fourth, is the challenge from salmon and other foods. Global bluefin ranching in 2020 needs to look very different from now to be economically viable – the question is whether it will come from game-changers, or just significant incremental improvements. 

Contact:  B. Jeffriess, Australian Southern Bluefin Tuna Industry Association, Australia, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.